The Other Fifteen

The beauty of college football – and the reason it’s so difficult to predict these games – is that every week, someone is going to get beaten by a team that has no business beating them. It’s going to happen. It’s just impossible to say who that’s going to be. No one in their right mind would’ve picked Kentucky over Auburn, Texas Tech over #15 Nebraska (yes!), #19 Georgia Tech over #4 Virginia Tech (ahem) and certainly not a 1-5 Purdue team over #7 Ohio State.

But that’s what makes the sport so compelling. If you don’t show up each and every week, your national title hopes can be snuffed out in the blink of an eye. So who’s gonna get the snakebite this week? And who will slither from the weeds and do the biting? And who will suck the poison?! This metaphor is falling apart. Let’s move on, shall we?

Last week: 12-4

Good calls: ACC (4-1), SEC (5-1), Pac 10 (3-1), #19 Georgia Tech over #4 Virginia Tech (Georgia Tech win 28-23), “Ole Miss will win this game by 35+ points” (Ole Miss win 48-13), “Miami will win this game by three touchdowns” (Miami win 27-7).

Also, prior to the Texas/OU game, I wrote this:

That being said, I really don’t see how Oklahoma can pull this off. They’ve lost too many key guys, their offense hasn’t had time to find its rhythm…on the other hand, can we really live in a world in which an Oklahoma team with a Heisman-winning quarterback is unranked?! I say no.

This ended up being the most prescient paragraph I’ve ever written in my life. Oklahoma did lose too many guys, their offense hadn’t had time to find its rhythm and after OU somehow stayed in the top 25 after dropping to 3-3, we still don’t live in a world in which an Oklahoma team with a Heisman-winning quarterback is unranked. Go figure.

Now then. There’s a reason I’m spending so much time patting myself on the back for a stellar week. This week is gonna be a bloodbath. I may go 4-12. There are a lot of evenly matched teams and a lot of potential upsets…scanning the games, I don’t feel good about any of them. It’s gonna be ugly.

ACC

Florida State (2-4) at North Carolina (4-2)
It’s hard to believe that Florida State has fallen so far, so fast. Not just this season, but as a program. Do you realize Florida State finished in the top 5 of the AP poll every single year from 1987 to 2000? That’s unfathomable. They lost a total of 19 games in that span. Since 2000 they’ve lost 36 games. Even more unbelievable (even less believable?), they were in the top 25 at one point this season. And now they’re 2-4. I don’t feel comfortable picking UNC to win this game, but I kinda have to, don’t I?

#11 Georgia Tech (6-1) at Virginia (3-3)
This just screams “trap game.” Georgia Tech is coming off a huge win over Virginia Tech, they’re on the fringe of the top ten, they’re playing a Virginia team that has improved every week since that inexcusable loss to William & Mary…so is this my upset pick of the week? Nah, we’re not there yet.

Maryland (2-5) at Duke (3-3)
I don’t know what to make of Maryland. I can only figure that their win over Clemson was a total fluke. I mean, this is a team that lost to Middle Tennessee State, for cryin’ out loud. I’ll take Duke in this one.

Boston College (5-2) at Notre Dame (4-2)
Average margin of victory for BC’s five wins: 25 points
Average margin of defeat for BC’s two losses: 26 points

Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish have been within 7 points for every win and loss this season (excluding a season-opening 35-0 pasting of Nevada). What does this mean? Well, either Notre Dame is going to hold true to form and win by 3 points or BC is going to hold true to form and lose by 26.

Wake Forest (4-3) at Navy (5-2)
Even though Paul Johnson left Navy for greener pastures, his former team has managed to stay competitive, beating the bad teams (Rice, Western Kentucky) and losing to the good ones (Ohio State, Pitt). The problem in picking this game is figuring out which category Wake Forest falls into. I’ll take Navy.

Clemson (3-3) at #8 Miami (5-1)
Well, if Clemson isn’t the quintessential ACC team…they beat Boston College, then lose to Maryland, then beat Wake Forest. This is irrelevant, of course, because there’s no way they can hang with Miami. It will be interesting to see what they do during the upcoming three-game stretch against fellow head-scratchers Florida State, NC State and Virginia.

SEC

Arkansas (3-3) at Ole Miss (4-2)
This is a critical, make-or-break game for each of these teams. One of them will see their season officially go off the rails. It’s been well-documented in this column (all two weeks of it, anyway) that I believe in the Razorbacks. I’m just not quite sure what that last-second loss to Florida did to them mentally. Vegas likes Ole Miss (-6), but I’ll take Arkansas.

Tennessee (3-3) at #1 Alabama (7-0)
If Lane Kiffin does what he did against Florida – not trying to win, but trying simply to keep it respectable – then…well, I guess he’ll keep it respectable. If he plays to win, however…he’ll get blown out. Alabama cruises.

UL-Monroe (4-2) at Kentucky (3-3)
The summer after my junior year of college, I decided to spend a month living at my mom’s house in Monroe, LA. And since I had a Spanish requirement to fulfill, I decided to take a summer class at UL-Monroe. My final grade in the class: 104. Unfortunately, their athletics are on par with their academics. Kentucky rolls in this one.

Vanderbilt (2-5) at #23 South Carolina (5-2)
South Carolina wins this one. What a disappointing season for Vandy. It almost appeared that Bobby Johnson had this program headed in the right direction. This is a column for another day, but can we please take these highly-respected private universities and start a separate conference? Duke, Tulane, Vandy, Rice, SMU, Baylor…this would make sense, right?

#2 Florida (6-0) at Mississippi State (3-4)
Dan Mullen was Florida’s offensive coordinator last season, now he’s Mississippi State’s coach. If USC’s former offensive coordinator (U-Dub’s Steve Sarkisian) could knock off the Trojans then surely…nah. At least Washington had some recruits in place. Florida wins this one easily.

Auburn (5-2) at #9 LSU (5-1)
Oh, Auburn. You get everyone’s hopes up by winning your first five games, beating an underrated West Virginia team and handling Tennessee on the road. Then you follow that up by losing at Arkansas (understandable) and…uhh…at home to Kentucky?! Not the best time to slump, heading into a night game at Death Valley. LSU wins, but (to borrow from Lee Corso), it’s closer than the experts think.

Pac 10

#12 Oregon (5-1) at Washington (3-4)
This is the game where everyone says, “Oh, Oregon is looking ahead to USC, but don’t sleep on Washington! Look what they did to USC!” You think the Oregon coaches and players haven’t picked up on that already? Oregon wins.

Washington State (1-5) at Cal (4-2)
Washington State continues to be one of the worst major conference teams in the country. Cal wins.

UCLA (3-3) at Arizona (4-2)
Arizona might be better than I gave them credit for. They’ve beaten some decent teams (Oregon State, Stanford) this year, and this game is at home. I’ll take Arizona.

Oregon State (4-2) at #4 USC (5-1)
The word “revenge” will be batted around by the Gameday crew, I’m sure. And I guess that’s fair, considering Oregon State ruined USC’s chances of playing for a national title last year. USC wins big.

Arizona State (4-2) at Stanford (4-3)
Hell, I don’t know. These Pac 10 games are tough to pick. Luckily, most of the games this week have an obvious winner, aside from UCLA/Arizona and this one. I’ve had a lot of faith in Stanford this season (for some strange reason). Why stop now? Stanford wins.

Big XII South Game of the Week

#3 Texas (6-0) at Missouri (4-2)
I still think Texas is overrated. They played an OU team last week that was without Sam Bradford, and they still barely won. The one thing they did well was defend the run. The one thing they didn’t do well was defend the pass. And guess what Mizzou likes to do? I’ll take Missouri in my Guaranteed (non-binding) Upset Lock of the Week.